Week 5 Quick Reads: Stroud and Proud

Take a look at the passing DYAR stats for the first five games of the 2023 season and you’ll see some unexpected names at the top of the list.

For example, Patrick Mahomes is only fourth, in part due to opponent adjustments for an easier schedule. Justin Herbert is only eighth. Jalen Hurts is 13th. Instead, the numbers are led by Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa. When the offenses are as efficient as San Francisco and Miami, the quarterbacks are going to put up great numbers.

Josh Allen is currently third in passing DYAR. And then fourth, you’ll find a rookie, C.J. Stroud. Yes, despite the loss to Atlanta on Sunday, the Houston Texans are surprisingly competitive this season. And a big reason is the early success of Stroud, their No. 2 overall pick quarterback.

Stroud’s productive rookie year comes into better focus when you compare him to other rookies in our database. Since 1981, only a dozen rookie quarterbacks combined for at least 100 passing DYAR in their first five NFL starts. Stroud ranks fourth among these quarterbacks, just ahead of another Houston Texans passer, Deshaun Watson in 2017.

Year	Player	Team	Pass DYAR First 5 Starts	Final Rookie Pass DYAR
2004	B.Roethlisberger	PIT	505	915
2016	D.Prescott	DAL	471	1302
2020	J.Herbert	LAC	436	861
2023	C.J.Stroud	HOU	430	—
2017	D.Watson	HOU	429	497
2022	B.Purdy	SF	411	397
1983	D.Marino	MIA	383	885
2011	C.Newton	CAR	308	407
2012	R.Griffin	WAS	267	727
2012	A.Luck	IND	146	257
1998	C.Batch	DET	123	335
2008	M.Ryan	ATL	100	1012

That’s a pretty good list of quarterbacks for Stroud to be on. Sure, Robert Griffin had injury issues, Charlie Batch was mostly a longtime backup, and Cam Newton never fully developed as a passer. But the Texans would probably be pretty happy if Stroud turned into some composite of the other quarterbacks on that list.

And yes, I’m including Brock Purdy in that discussion. Purdy’s rookie numbers look a little strange because his full-year DYAR is lower than the DYAR in his first five starts. That’s because he wasn’t so great when he came in to relieve Jimmy Garoppolo late in a Week 7 game. Once he took over as the starter, though, Purdy has been among the most efficient quarterbacks in the league. In fact, he’s the most efficient this year and was the most efficient on Sunday.

Updated Tuesday morning 10:30am EDT with Monday Night Football.

Quarterbacks
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
1.	Brock Purdy	SF	17/24	252	4	0	1	213	213	0	DAL
Purdy had 100 passing DYAR in the red zone this week, completing all six of his pass attempts with three touchdowns.
2.	Desmond Ridder	ATL	28/37	329	1	0	0	194	181	12	HOU
Ridder had 37 passing DYAR in the first half of this game and then 144 passing DYAR in the second half.
3.	Josh Allen	BUF	27/40	359	2	1	0	178	164	14	JAX
Allen had nearly all of this week’s DYAR on first downs, when he averaged 13.1 net yards per pass. On third downs, however, he completed just 5 of 10 passes with just three conversions and an interception.
4.	Patrick Mahomes	KC	31/40	281	2	0	2	127	127	0	MIN
The opposite of Josh Allen‘s game against the Jaguars. Mahomes averaged just 3.1 net yards per pass on first downs, but completed 8 of 10 passes on third downs with six conversions (five first downs and a touchdown) and 10.0 net yards per pass.
5.	Jared Goff	DET	20/28	236	3	0	2	115	111	5	CAR
Goff had 108 passing DYAR in the first half and only 3 passing DYAR in the second half of this game. Goff now ranks second in passing DYAR on the season among NFC quarterbacks behind only Brock Purdy.
6.	Justin Fields	CHI	15/29	282	4	0	3	115	92	23	WAS
Fields had 94 DYAR and three of his four passing touchdowns on third downs.
7.	Trevor Lawrence	JAX	25/37	315	1	0	5	103	103	0	BUF
Lawrence nearly doubles his DYAR because of opponent adjustments for playing the Bills.
8.	Gardner Minshew	IND	11/14	155	0	0	0	96	99	-3	TEN
9.	Jalen Hurts	PHI	25/38	303	1	1	1	89	73	17	LAR
10.	C.J. Stroud	HOU	20/35	249	1	0	0	88	86	3	ATL
Stroud currently leads the NFL with 378 passing DYAR on passes up the middle. Only Lamar Jackson (30%) throws in the middle more often than Stroud (29%).
11.	Kirk Cousins	MIN	29/46	284	2	0	3	75	72	3	KC
Cousins is surprisingly second in DYAR on deep passes this year, 332 DYAR, behind only Brock Purdy. He is tied for the NFL lead in deep attempts with 42. (Deep is defined here as more than 15 air yards.)
12.	Sam Howell	WAS	37/51	388	2	1	5	71	74	-3	CHI
COMMENTS
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
13.	Derek Carr	NO	18/26	183	2	0	2	70	69	2	NE
14.	Kenny Pickett	PIT	18/32	224	1	0	3	70	71	-2	BAL
Pickett had -5 passing DYAR (3.5 net yards per pass) in the first half and 76 passing DYAR (7.5 net yards per pass) in the second half.
15.	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	23/33	264	0	1	1	69	63	6	IND
16.	Joe Burrow	CIN	36/46	317	3	1	3	58	66	-8	ARI
Despite that deep bomb to Ja’Marr Chase that went 51 air yards for a 63-yard touchdown, Burrow’s overall numbers on deep passes are poor this season. He has a league-low -51 passing DYAR on deep passes.
17.	Tua Tagovailoa	MIA	22/29	308	2	2	1	22	20	2	NYG
The Miami offense often has Tua throwing deep, but not this week, as he was dead last in average depth of target (4.2 yards) but No. 1 in average YAC (10.7 yards).
MNF	Jimmy Garoppolo	LV	22/30	208	1	1	3	21	22	-1	GB
18.	Bryce Young	CAR	26/41	247	3	2	1	20	19	1	DET
19.	Tyrod Taylor	NYG	9/12	86	0	0	1	9	13	-4	MIA
20.	Matthew Stafford	LAR	22/37	222	2	0	4	7	7	0	PHI
21.	Anthony Richardson	IND	9/12	98	0	0	1	-13	-10	-4	TEN
22.	Russell Wilson	DEN	21/30	196	2	0	4	-20	-5	-14	NYJ
Through three quarters, Wilson had just 9 yards of passing to wide receivers. Then he completed four passes of that length or longer to wide receivers in the fourth quarter.
Rk	Player	Team	CP/AT	Yds	TD	INT	Sacks	Total DYAR	Pass DYAR	Rush DYAR	Opp
23.	Bailey Zappe	NE	3/9	22	0	0	0	-25	-25	0	NO
24.	Daniel Jones	NYG	14/20	119	0	0	6	-40	-48	8	MIA
Jones now is in last place among all quarterbacks this season with an adjusted sack rate of 15.1%, nearly twice the NFL average of 7.6%.
25.	Zach Wilson	NYJ	19/26	199	0	1	4	-65	-65	0	DEN
26.	Lamar Jackson	BAL	22/38	236	0	1	4	-76	-83	7	PIT
This doesn’t adjust for drops, and Jackson’s receivers had a lot of them on Sunday. Jackson completed just 3 of 8 passes in the red zone with no conversions and the third-and-goal interception with 4:10 remaining.
27.	Dak Prescott	DAL	14/24	153	1	3	3	-93	-95	2	SF
Prescott had a league-high 12.7-yard average depth of target this week, which is more a sign of desperation than a sign of an offense built to get the ball deep.
MNF	Jordan Love	GB	16/30	182	0	3	2	-98	-115	17	LV
28.	Joshua Dobbs	ARI	15/32	166	2	2	3	-106	-94	-12	CIN
Dobbs was 3-for-8 on first downs with two sacks including a lost fumble. But you can’t blame the Cardinals offense for dumping it off on first downs — four of those pass attempts were deep (over 15 air yards).
29.	Mac Jones	NE	12/22	110	0	2	2	-137	-118	-19	NO
Jones on third downs: 2 for 8 with only one conversion plus a pick-six and a 13-yard sack.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Total)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Zack Moss	IND	23	165	2	2/2	30	0	84	74	10	TEN
Moss gets a positive bump for facing a strong Titans run defense. Seventeen of his 23 runs were listed as going up the middle.
2.	Alvin Kamara	NO	22	80	1	3/3	17	0	48	44	4	NE
Kamara also gets a strong opponent adjustment, because the Patriots’ run defense has been excellent on first and second downs this season. Kamara didn’t have a carry over 10 yards but also had only three less than 2 yards.
3.	De’Von Achane	MIA	11	151	1	1/1	14	0	43	32	11	NYG
Achane loses some value because the Giants run defense is bad and because he had fumbled the ball away on first-and-10 in the second quarter.
4.	Travis Etienne	JAX	26	136	2	4/5	48	0	37	15	22	BUF
Etienne had three first downs as a receiver. His rushing was very boom-and-bust, with six carries for 9 yards or more but also four carries that lost yardage, three more for no yards, and eight more that gained just 1 or 2 yards. (One of those was a short-yardage conversion, but the others were not.)
5.	Jordan Mason	SF	10	69	1	0/1	0	0	33	37	-3	DAL
Eight of Mason’s 10 runs gained at least 4 yards, including his 26-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Five Best Running Backs by DYAR (Rushing)
Rk	Player	Team	Runs	Rush Yds	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	Total DYAR	Rush DYAR	Rec DYAR	Opp
1.	Zack Moss	IND	23	165	2	2/2	30	0	84	74	10	TEN
2.	Alvin Kamara	NO	22	80	1	3/3	17	0	48	44	4	NE
3.	Jordan Mason	SF	10	69	1	0/1	0	0	33	37	-3	DAL
4.	De’Von Achane	MIA	11	151	1	1/1	14	0	43	32	11	NYG
5.	Raheem Mostert	MIA	10	65	1	2/2	13	0	16	23	-7	NYG

Worst Running Back by DYAR (Total/Rushing)

Player

Team

Runs

Rush
Yds

Rush
TD

Rec

Rec
Yds

Rec
TD

Total
DYAR

Rush
DYAR

Rec
DYAR

Opp

Eric Gray

NYG

1/1

-38

-34

-4

MIA

The fifth-round rookie lost yardage on three of his 12 carries and had only one carry over 5 yards. He also fumbled (but it was recovered by the Giants).

Five Best Wide Receivers and Tight Ends by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	DJ Moore	CHI	8	10	230	28.8	3	103	WAS
This was the best wide receiver game of the year so far by DYAR, the first one over 100. Moore had two gains over 50 yards and two more over 30 yards. He caught 4 of 6 targets on third down and converted on all four receptions.
2.	Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	15	19	192	12.8	3	81	ARI
Chase only had one reception for more than 20 yards, but that was a 63-yard touchdown. He caught all three targets on third down, converting three different third-and-shorts.
3.	Tyreek Hill	MIA	8	9	181	22.6	1	67	NYG
Hill averaged 18.1 yards after the catch on this week’s eight receptions.
4.	A.J. Brown	PHI	6	8	127	21.2	0	67	LAR
5.	George Pickens	PIT	6	10	130	21.7	1	63	BAL

Worst Wide Receiver or Tight End by DYAR
Rk	Player	Team	Rec	Att	Yds	Avg	TD	Total DYAR	Opp
1.	Robert Woods	HOU	3	9	30	10.0	0	-34	ATL
Woods was essentially tied with Darnell Mooney of the Bears, who had no catches on four targets. Woods was the target on three third-down passes: two incompletes and a 5-yard gain on third-and-15.

Week 5 Quick Reads: Stroud and Proud

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