NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Terry McLaurinReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Bears
Right now, Terry McLaurin’s receiving yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-142/+104).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (+104) after it opened @ 59.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 11.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- In this game, Terry McLaurin is expected by the projections to place in the 81st percentile among WRs with 7.1 targets.
- Terry McLaurin’s 79.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season shows a a meaningful improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season’s 67.4% mark.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- Terry McLaurin has notched far fewer air yards this season (67.0 per game) than he did last season (88.0 per game).
- Terry McLaurin’s 49.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 58.6.
Projection
THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards
66
Receiving Yards
