Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 203.5 yards (-115/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 203.5 (-115) after it opened @ 197.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 7-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- Justin Fields’s 227.0 passing yards per game this year illustrates a a noteable improvement in his throwing proficiency over last year’s 149.0 figure.
Cons
- Our trusted projections expect the Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 51.0% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bears are projected by the projection model to run just 60.8 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
- In this game, Justin Fields is expected by the projection model to have the fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 27.2.
- The Commanders defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.06 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
- The Commanders cornerbacks rank as the 5th-best CB corps in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
173
Passing Yards
173
Passing Yards
