Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Logan Thomas

Logan ThomasReceiving Yards

Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).

Pros

The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 11.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The leading projections forecast Logan Thomas to accrue 4.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
Logan Thomas has posted a monstrous 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.

Cons

The Commanders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
Logan Thomas has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 17th percentile.
This year, the imposing Bears pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a measly 3.2 YAC.

Projection

THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards