NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Logan ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Commanders vs. Bears
Right now, Logan Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to skew 11.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- The leading projections forecast the Commanders to be the 5th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 65.4% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, and reduced rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- The leading projections forecast Logan Thomas to accrue 4.5 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
- Logan Thomas has posted a monstrous 30.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Cons
- The Commanders are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- Our trusted projections expect this game to have the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 121.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense this year: 8th-fewest in the league.
- Logan Thomas has been among the weakest tight ends in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 17th percentile.
- This year, the imposing Bears pass defense has allowed the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing TEs: a measly 3.2 YAC.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
