Best MLB Bets Today - Free (Wednesday 10/4)

Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!

Today, MLBdream provides his picks.

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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today

Texas Rangers @ Tampa Bay Rays

Rangers +122 @ Rays -145 – Total 8 (Caesars)

The Rangers go for the sweep Wednesday at Tropicana field after the Rays defense and bats let us down Tuesday. Tampa committed four errors and went 1-6 with runners in scoring position, as Texas lefty Jordan Montgomery shoved. Tampa has their ace on the mound Wednesday, as Zach Eflin faces off against Nathan Eovaldi with their season on the line.

Like the Rays, Eovaldi’s 2023 season got off to an impressive start. Through May (11 starts), Eovaldi posted a 2.42 ERA and 2.50 FIP, with a 3.59 SIERA and 4.5% barrel percentage. Eovaldi was dominating until the injury bug popped up – something Eovaldi has dealt with his entire career, easily the biggest knock on the hard-throwing righty. He looks like a different guy since being activated off the IL in early September — the 33-year-old has allowed 21 runs in 20.1 innings. The righty has been absolutely shelled in those six starts posting a 9.30 ERA, 7.88 FIP, 5.10 SIERA and 12.9% barrel percentage.

Over the last 30 days, the Rays rank seventh in MLB in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at 105. They’re top-10 in runs and home runs in that stretch. Overall, the Rays 5.28 runs per game ranks fourth in baseball, right behind Texas, who averages 5.43 runs a game. Tampa will have seven batters hitting from the right side in this one. While Eovaldi has a higher strikeout percentage against righties, his FIP, wOBA, BB% and WHIP are worse when facing batters from that side of the dish.

I decided to play the flat four here, you can also split your risk between a 3.5 and 4.5 if your book isn’t offering four. Be sure to check the FTN Prop Shop to ensure you’re betting the best number available.