Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Isiah PachecoRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Chiefs
Right now, Isiah Pacheco’s rushing yards prop is set at 57.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 57.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Chiefs are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a running game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run the 4th-most plays on offense among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
- Isiah Pacheco has been much more involved in his offense’s rushing attack this season (54.3% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (40.9%).
- The Chiefs O-line profiles as the best in the NFL last year at blocking for rushers.
- Isiah Pacheco has rushed for a lot more adjusted yards per game (75.0) this year than he did last year (50.0).
Cons
- Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chiefs to run on 34.5% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
- The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still “weather” conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may go down.
- The Minnesota Vikings defense has had the 6th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 3.66 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
- When it comes to the defensive tackles’ role in run defense, Minnesota’s DT corps has been phenomenal this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Rushing Yards
53
Rushing Yards
