Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Ja'Marr Chase from EV Insight

Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards

Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-110) after it opened @ 70.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bengals are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 71.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 45.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Ja’Marr Chase has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (104.0 per game) than he did last year (109.0 per game).
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 6th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Ja’Marr Chase’s pass-game effectiveness has declined this season, compiling a measly 8.23 yards-per-target vs a 10.20 mark last season.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 8th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards