NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/3)
Alex Christenson
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Bills vs. Steelers
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 82.5 yards (-135/-101).
The public has bet the OVER up to 82.5 (-135) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 71.0% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 137.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 9th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 40.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Bills are a big 14-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- The weatherman calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- Stefon Diggs has posted significantly fewer air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (115.0 per game).
- The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game stats across the board.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wide receivers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 5.11 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 10th-least in the NFL.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Receiving Yards
86
Receiving Yards
