NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Ian ThomasReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Panthers vs. 49ers
Right now, Ian Thomas’s receiving yards prop is set at 12.5 yards (-106/-129).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 12.5 (-129) after it opened @ 12.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Ian Thomas has been a much bigger part of his offense’s pass game this year (10.8% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (5.0%).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Panthers to call the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-least plays in the league this year, totaling a mere 52.2 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 33.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the league.
- Ian Thomas’s receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 64.8% to 51.0%.
- Ian Thomas’s pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this season, accumulating a measly 5.35 yards-per-target vs a 6.53 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
16
Receiving Yards
16
Receiving Yards
