Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Monday Night Football same game parlay is a high-flying one this week. The Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders will link up and feature two defenses that have been shredded by their opponents in 2022.
The total in this game is 52, so expect points to be scored on both sides. When games project to be high scoring, we should focus on anytime touchdown props.
DraftKings NFL Week 5 Same Game Parlay
Davante Adams Anytime TD
Travis Kelce Anytime TD
Davante Adams over 69.5 Receiving Yards
Odds: +310, DraftKings Sportsbook
The DraftKings same game parlay of the day centers around two of the best pass-catching options at their respective positions in the NFL. Travis Kelce is averaging 6.5 catches on 8.5 targets for 80+ yards per game in 2022. He has found the end zone in three of four games this season. The Raiders give up the sixth-most yards per pass attempt, the sixth-most points per drive and have allowed opponents to score on 77% of their red-zone drives, the fourth-highest rate in the league. This is a good matchup for a high-usage guy in a high-scoring game. Gerald Everett had 3/54/1 against them to start the season. Zach Ertz went 8/75, Geoff Swaim and Austin Hooper went a combined 5/38/1, and last week they faced a Broncos team that completed 17 total passes, but one of them was a 25-yard gain for their TE. It’s been a good matchup for the position, and none of those guys mentioned are Travis Kelce level.
Davante Adams has scored in all but one game this season. He saw 13 targets in that scoreless game and racked up over 100 yards, so it was not for lack of opportunity. Adams led the league in red-zone targets coming into Week 5 with 13. The Chiefs have allowed scores on 80% of their opponent’s red-zone drives. That means we have a highly used alpha receiver in the red zone facing a team giving it up at the second-worst rate in the league in a game with multiple touchdowns projected. Adams is averaging 11.75 targets per game and over 75 yard receiving. The reception number is juiced way up to -140 for over 6.5, meaning the likelihood is high Adams catches more passes according to the books. He is averaging over 11 yards per catch this season, so multiplying the seven catches by the 11-yard average gives us a high probability of 77+ yards, 10% higher than the prop number we are playing to build a cushion.
What is a Same Game Parlay?
A same game parlay is a bet that links multiple outcomes together that all come from the same event. Every NFL game has hundreds of different bet types. Sports books will offer bets on the spread, on the total, on who will score a touchdown, how many yards certain players will have, and many more events. A bettor has the ability to make a straight bet on each of these markets individually. If a bettor decides he wants to get a bigger payout by linking multiple outcomes together, that is what a same game parlay is for.
Why Bet Same Game Parlays
Same-game parlays offer a unique opportunity. Most parlays are -EV because you are trying to build up odds through uncorrelated events. When you put three teams in a parlay and it pays out at +595, you are getting the implied probability of 14.39%. There is not much value there — if you hit bets at a 52% clip, a three-team parlay at -110 odds has the implied probability of 14%. You are making a bad bet as the implied probability of you hitting the bet is less than the odds you are receiving.
Same-game parlays are different — you get an opportunity to add multiple events that increase your odds, and they are correlated. Same-game parlays are very similar to DFS game theory — you are telling yourself a story for how the game plays out and when you are right you win in a big way. Think Tom Brady has a huge game and throws for multiple touchdowns and over 300 yards? Well, he is going to have to take some receivers with him. Now the Buccaneers are putting pressure on the other team and they will have to respond by airing it out. Picking a receiver on the other team to run it back can give you serious odds and a big pay out. The reason to bet on the same-game parlays is because, when you are right, it pays off big. But it is very important when building them you aren’t trying to tell two different stories.
