WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
T.J. HockensonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Lions
Right now, T.J. Hockenson’s receiving yards prop is set at 43.5 yards (+105/-135).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 43.5 (-135) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects T.J. Hockenson to garner 6.5 targets in this game, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among tight ends.
- T.J. Hockenson has put up a whopping 56.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.
- T.J. Hockenson has been among the leading TEs in the pass game this year, averaging a stellar 48.0 yards per game while ranking in the 91st percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- T.J. Hockenson’s 41.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 48.2.
- The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- T.J. Hockenson’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 74.4% to 59.4%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
