Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 51.5 (-115) after it opened @ 42.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- Darnell Mooney has run a route on 92.9% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Darnell Mooney to notch 7.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.41 seconds per play.
- Darnell Mooney has compiled significantly fewer air yards this year (62.0 per game) than he did last year (88.0 per game).
- The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
