Week 5 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Fields from EV Insight

Justin FieldsPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 164.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 164.5 (-110) after it opened @ 160.5 (-115).

Pros

The Bears are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in football vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (75.5%).
The Minnesota Vikings defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 8.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.41 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 30.3 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
213
Passing Yards