Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Christian KirkReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Jaguars vs. Texans
Right now, Christian Kirk’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-110) after it opened @ 64.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Jacksonville Jaguars boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Jaguars to run the 6th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian Kirk to total 8.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
- Christian Kirk has been a more integral piece of his team’s passing offense this year (26.4% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last year (18.3%).
- Christian Kirk has notched significantly more air yards this year (78.0 per game) than he did last year (72.0 per game).
Cons
- The Jaguars are a massive 7-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- Christian Kirk’s possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 74.9% to 60.6%.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have been faced with a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards
71
Receiving Yards
