Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Rams vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the OVER up to 66.5 (-130) after it opened @ 65.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will be rolling out backup QB Cooper Rush this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Cowboys are a 5-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-highest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to garner 10.4 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now with a 59.6% pass rate.
- CeeDee Lamb’s ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 67.2% to 55.9%.
- CeeDee Lamb’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, averaging a measly 7.10 yards-per-target compared to a 9.37 rate last year.
- The Los Angeles Rams defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 4th-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
- The Dallas Cowboys have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.3% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
