NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Patriots vs. Lions
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 68.5 (-115) after it opened @ 68.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Lions are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, indicating a passing game script.
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 7th-quickest pace in football (adjusted for context) this year, averaging 26.63 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 8.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among WRs.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading WRs in the game since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 64.0 yards per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s ability to generate extra yardage has improved this season, totaling 10.78 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs just 3.24 mark last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions as the 9th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to be a much smaller part of his offense’s air attack this week (25.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (30.6% in games he has played).
- The Detroit Lions offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 78.6% to 69.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
63
Receiving Yards
63
Receiving Yards
