NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
David MontgomeryRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Vikings vs. Bears
Right now, David Montgomery’s rushing yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 53.5 (-110) after it opened @ 61.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects David Montgomery to accumulate 15.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 84th percentile among RBs.
- The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 10th-best in football this year at blocking for the run game.
- The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The Bears are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 29.41 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles project as the 4th-best DT corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.
Projection
THE BLITZ
61
Rushing Yards
61
Rushing Yards
