WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Amari CooperReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Browns vs. Chargers
Right now, Amari Cooper’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 50.5 (-125) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Amari Cooper to accrue 7.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among WRs.
- Amari Cooper has notched significantly more air yards this season (88.0 per game) than he did last season (79.0 per game).
- Amari Cooper’s 65.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 47.0.
- The Cleveland Browns O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Amari Cooper has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers this year, averaging a stellar 62.0 yards per game while ranking in the 81st percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns to be the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 51.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cleveland Browns offense as the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 30.32 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Amari Cooper’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, totaling a measly 8.22 yards-per-target vs a 9.76 figure last year.
- The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.07 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
54
Receiving Yards
54
Receiving Yards
