Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Marcus MariotaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
Right now, Marcus Mariota’s passing yards prop is set at 197.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 197.5 (-110) after it opened @ 204.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Falcons are a heavy 10-point underdog in this week’s contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- Marcus Mariota has passed for quite a few more yards per game (197.0) this year than he did last year (1.0).
- Marcus Mariota has been among the most effective quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging an impressive 7.96 yards-per-target while checking in at the 81st percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 53.2 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Marcus Mariota to attempt 33.2 passes this week, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
- Marcus Mariota has been among the worst precision passers in the NFL this year with a 57.2% Completion%, grading out in the 9th percentile.
- Opposing teams have passed for the 9th-least yards in the league (just 210.0 per game) versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
216
Passing Yards
216
Passing Yards
