Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Panthers vs. 49ers
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 217.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 217.5 (-110) after it opened @ 212.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 8.00 yards-per-target while checking in at the 84th percentile.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 10th-highest level in the league against the Carolina Panthers defense this year (72.7%).
- The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- The 49ers are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.2% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 31.7 passes this week, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
- Jimmy Garoppolo’s throwing accuracy has diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 68.2% to 62.1%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards
252
Passing Yards
