Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Bryce YoungPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 5
Lions vs. Panthers
Right now, Bryce Young’s passing yards prop is set at 209.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 209.5 (-110) after it opened @ 233.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Panthers will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the model projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.9% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.9% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
- The predictive model expects the Panthers to be the 5th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.46 seconds per play.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 41.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Lions defense this year: 4th-most in football.
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
- With a feeble 4.95 adjusted yards-per-target (3rd percentile) this year, Bryce Young places as one of the worst per-play quarterbacks in the league.
- This year, the formidable Lions defense has yielded a puny 67.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 9th-lowest rate in the league.
- The Lions defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.25 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 2nd-fewest in football.
- The Detroit Lions safeties grade out as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
234
Passing Yards
234
Passing Yards
