Week 5 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 29.5 (-110) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).

Pros

The predictive model expects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 68.0% pass rate.
With an exceptional 69.6% Route Participation Rate (79th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks among the TEs with the most usage in the league.
In this week’s game, Dalton Kincaid is expected by the model to secure a spot in the 80th percentile among tight ends with 4.8 targets.
The Bills offensive line grades out as the best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
With a remarkable 94.0% Adjusted Catch Rate (95th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid ranks as one of the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends.

Cons

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The model projects the Bills to call the 9th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
With a lackluster 3.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (25th percentile) this year, Dalton Kincaid places as one of the best pass-game tight ends in the league in space.
This year, the daunting Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded a measly 63.2% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 5th-best rate in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards