Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Bears
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 81.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 81.5 (-110) after it opened @ 78.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Giants are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the 4th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 46.9% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 7th-quickest paced defense in the league (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per play.
- The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to total 20.3 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Cons
- The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
- The New York Giants have utilized motion in their offense on 26.6% of their play-calls since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
86
Rushing Yards
86
Rushing Yards
