Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rashaad PennyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, Rashaad Penny’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 61.5 (-110) after it opened @ 57.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
- THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to total 12.6 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
- Rashaad Penny has grinded out 65.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among running backs (96th percentile).
- Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-most yards in the NFL (140 per game) vs. the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season.
- The Detroit Lions defensive ends rank as the worst unit in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Cons
- The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 37.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Rashaad Penny to be a less important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (51.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (62.7% in games he has played).
- Rashaad Penny’s ground efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 4.20 yards-per-carry vs a 5.96 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
58
Rushing Yards
58
Rushing Yards
