Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Mike GesickiReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 21.5 yards (+110/-140).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 21.5 (-140) after it opened @ 21.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- Mike Gesicki has accumulated a monstrous 49.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.
- Mike Gesicki has been among the best TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 39.0 yards per game while ranking in the 88th percentile.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Mike Gesicki’s 12.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 42.4.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
- Mike Gesicki has been among the bottom tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 3.05 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 6th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
25
Receiving Yards
25
Receiving Yards
