Today’s Best Bets
Sam Choudhury
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Bengals vs. Dolphins
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (+102/-139).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 254.5 (-139) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
- The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.4% to 72.2%.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s pass-game efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 8.36 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.84 rate last season.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
- The Cincinnati Bengals defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.86 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in football.
- The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards
254
Passing Yards
