Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tua Tagovailoa from EV Insight

Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards

Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 254.5 yards (+102/-139).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 254.5 (-139) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 4-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The Dolphins rank as the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 68.5% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game versus the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Tua Tagovailoa’s passing accuracy has gotten better this year, with his Completion% jumping from 67.4% to 72.2%.
Tua Tagovailoa’s pass-game efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 8.36 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.84 rate last season.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dolphins to run the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 60.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 4.86 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in football.
The Cincinnati Bengals cornerbacks grade out as the 3rd-best unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
254
Passing Yards