Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Khalil HerbertRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Bears
Right now, Khalil Herbert’s rushing yards prop is set at 74.5 yards (-104/-131).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 74.5 (-131) after it opened @ 77.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.5% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to garner 20.9 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Khalil Herbert to be much more involved in his offense’s run game this week (59.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (36.7% in games he has played).
Cons
- The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
- The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
Projection
THE BLITZ
97
Rushing Yards
97
Rushing Yards
