Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
At the beginning of each week, we highlight our favorite CFB bets so that you can get in early and lock in the best possible odds. This companion piece will drop each Friday and I will talk about some intriguing parlays you can consider and the reasons why I favor them so much. These could be as simple as picking a side and the total of a single game or stringing together a couple of games into the same parlay.
I’ve identified two parlays that are advantageous, so let’s dive in and make some money in Week 5.
Virginia vs. Duke
Iowa State vs. Kansas
(Duke -2.5, O/U 52.5; Iowa State -3.5, O/U 59; DraftKings Sportsbook)
Virginia has been awful this season — clearly the new offense just isn’t working and is handcuffing Brennan Armstrong as a playmaker. They have beaten Duke in seven straight games, but that streak is in danger as both teams are going in different directions. While Virginia has struggled the Blue Devils are 3-1 with their recent loss to Kansas being an extremely close game. Armstrong has more interceptions than touchdowns while Duke QB Riley Leonard has accounted for 8 TDs (6 passing/2 rushing) and has completed over 70% of his passes. Duke might not be just a basketball school anymore.
The Cyclones have a reputation for being a tough defense, but this year they’ve taken a slight step back and the Jayhawks have taken a major step forward. Duke and Kansas have both struggled as football programs for years, but something has clicked this year with both rolling early on. Jalon Daniels is forcing his way into the Heisman conversation as he has completed 71% of his passes with 11 TDs to just 1 INT and over 300 rushing yards. He is the total package, and I’m a believer in this Jayhawks team at this point. Give me Kansas +3 and ML this weekend.
Best Bet
Duke -2.5 (-115) and Kansas ML (+130) — Combined +330
Duke -2.5 (-115) and Kansas +3 (-110) — Combined +256
Kendre Miller Rushing Yardage Prop
Jaydn Ott Rushing Yardage Prop
(Kendre Miller 74.5 Rushing Yards, Jaydn Ott 83.5 Rushing Yards, DraftKings Sportsbook)
I’m all in on Kendre Miller this week from a DFS perspective and in the prop market. The Sooners are giving up over 150 yards per game on the ground and most recently got gashed by Kansas State on the ground for a total of 277 yards. Miller has been able to hold off Emani Bailey and Emaric Demercado for the lead back role and has accounted for over 54% of the Horned Frogs carries. He most recently ruished for 142 yards on just 17 carries last week in a big win over SMU, and I’m expecting him to tote the rock 20+ times against Oklahoma.
Jaydn Ott had his coming-out party last week against Arizona when he rushed for 274 yards and 3 touchdowns in a monster win over Arizona. The 4-star freshman just oozes potential and it’s obvious that Washington State will be putting extra attention on him but I’m not so sure it’s even going to matter. The Cougars have had two cupcake games (Idaho, Colorado State) and two games against much better competition (Oregon, Wisconsin). The Ducks committee backfield rushed for over 150 yards on the ground while bell cow Braelon Allen rushed for just under 100 yards for the Badgers. Ott has very little competition for carries going forward so this low-80s number is very advantageous when you consider how the Cougars have fared against upper-tier backs. The gamescript will also be relatively good for Ott as it should be close throughout.
Best Bet
Kendre Miller OVER 72.5 Rushing Yards (-115) and Jaydn Ott OVER 83.5 Rushing Yards (-115) — Combined +249
