Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Cowboys vs. Commanders
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 60.5 yards (-125/-105).
The public has bet the OVER up to 60.5 (-125) after it opened @ 59.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush in this week’s game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys offense as the 4th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.45 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to notch 9.1 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- CeeDee Lamb has accrued a colossal 87.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 88th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Cowboys are a 3-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 59.3% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to be a much smaller part of his team’s pass attack this week (26.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (33.3% in games he has played).
- CeeDee Lamb’s ball-catching skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% falling off from 67.2% to 52.3%.
- CeeDee Lamb’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating just 6.15 yards-per-target compared to a 9.37 mark last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
