Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Josh JacobsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Josh Jacobs’s rushing yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-121/-113).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-121) after it opened @ 63.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 16.3 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile among RBs.
- Josh Jacobs has averaged 58.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (89th percentile).
- Josh Jacobs’s ground effectiveness (4.84 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (81st percentile among running backs).
- Josh Jacobs has been among the leading running backs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a terrific 3.81 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 81st percentile.
- The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the league since the start of last season in regard to run defense.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 36.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a less important option in his offense’s rushing attack this week (71.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (84.0% in games he has played).
- Opposing squads have run for the 10th-least yards in the league (just 104 per game) versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
73
Rushing Yards
73
Rushing Yards
