Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Falcons vs. Browns
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 55.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 55.5 (-125) after it opened @ 55.5 (-115).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accrue 6.8 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
- Kyle Pitts has compiled a whopping 73.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among TEs.
- Kyle Pitts’s 51.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the league: 98th percentile for TEs.
- Kyle Pitts has been among the leading TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 52.0 yards per game while checking in at the 96th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 7th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Falcons to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have called the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging just 55.1 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
- Kyle Pitts’s possession skills have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 62.0% to 48.6%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
56
Receiving Yards
56
Receiving Yards
