Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Breece HallRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Steelers vs. Jets
Right now, Breece Hall’s rushing yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-112/-118).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 38.5 (-118) after it opened @ 38.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 138.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing squads have run for the 2nd-most yards in football (145 per game) versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season.
- The New York Jets have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Jets have elected to go for it on 4th down 22.0% of the time since the start of last season (10th-most in the league), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive stats across the board.
- The New York Jets have incorporated some form of misdirection on 57.6% of their plays since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- The Jets are a 3-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- The Jets have been the 8th-least run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 32.1% run rate.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends profile as the 3rd-best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
