Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Allen LazardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Packers vs. Patriots
Right now, Allen Lazard’s receiving yards prop is set at 40.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the OVER up to 40.5 (+100) after it opened @ 37.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects Allen Lazard to be a more integral piece of his team’s air attack this week (18.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.1% in games he has played).
- Allen Lazard has been among the most efficient receivers in the league, averaging a terrific 9.41 yards-per-target since the start of last season while grading out in the 83rd percentile among wide receivers.
- The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-slowest in the league since the start of last season.
- The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The Green Bay Packers have used some form of misdirection on 54.7% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-most in football), which usually makes an offense more unpredictable and more effective.
Cons
- The Packers are a heavy 9.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 11th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 56.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Green Bay Packers have run the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 58.4 plays per game.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 32.6 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
52
Receiving Yards
52
Receiving Yards
