Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Hayden Hurst from EV Insight

Hayden HurstReceiving Yards

Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+110/-151).

The public has bet the OVER up to 27.5 (+110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-120).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Hayden Hurst has been used less as a potential target this year (73.4% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accrue 4.1 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst has garnered a colossal 8.9% of his team’s air yards this year: 81st percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Hayden Hurst’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 80.1% to 74.5%.
Hayden Hurst’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this season, accumulating a measly 5.17 yards-per-target vs a 7.17 figure last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards