Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
DK MetcalfReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-127) after it opened @ 60.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Seahawks are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 9th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 62.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 27.34 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects DK Metcalf to earn 9.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking him in the 94th percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- The Seattle Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all air attack stats across the board.
- DK Metcalf’s receiving effectiveness has tailed off this season, totaling a measly 5.75 yards-per-target vs a 7.97 figure last season.
- The Seattle Seahawks have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 4th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Seattle Seahawks have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 8.7% of the time since the start of last season (least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.
- The Seattle Seahawks have utilized motion in their offense on 28.2% of their plays since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
80
Receiving Yards
80
Receiving Yards
