Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 52.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 52.5 (-110) after it opened @ 43.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to accumulate 8.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be much more involved in his team’s pass attack this week (23.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (17.8% in games he has played).
Darren Waller has compiled a whopping 82.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 98th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
Darren Waller has been among the bottom TEs in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a measly 4.62 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while grading out in the 24th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has surrendered the 7th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 39.0) versus tight ends since the start of last season.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency against tight ends since the start of last season, yielding 6.93 yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
66
Receiving Yards