Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Eagles vs. Jaguars
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 37.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 37.5 (-110) after it opened @ 45.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to earn 4.2 targets in this week’s game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among TEs.
- Dallas Goedert has been a key part of his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 18.8% since the start of last season, which places him in the 93rd percentile among tight ends.
- Dallas Goedert has posted a whopping 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 89th percentile among TEs.
- The Philadelphia Eagles O-line profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
Cons
- The Eagles are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 32.3 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 8th-least in the NFL.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has allowed the 8th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (68.3%) to tight ends since the start of last season (68.3%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
33
Receiving Yards
33
Receiving Yards
