Week 4 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Brandin Cooks from EV Insight

Brandin CooksReceiving Yards

Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Cons

The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Brandin Cooks’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 68.2% to 49.1%.
Brandin Cooks’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, notching a mere 5.75 yards-per-target vs a 7.86 mark last season.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 137.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards