WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Texans vs. Chargers
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 63.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 63.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.0% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Texans are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 64.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Cons
- The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 56.6 plays per game.
- The Houston Texans offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
- Brandin Cooks’s possession skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 68.2% to 49.1%.
- Brandin Cooks’s pass-game effectiveness has diminished this season, notching a mere 5.75 yards-per-target vs a 7.86 mark last season.
- The Los Angeles Chargers defense has allowed the 8th-least receiving yards per game in football (just 137.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Receiving Yards
81
Receiving Yards
