Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Russell WilsonPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Raiders vs. Broncos
Right now, Russell Wilson’s passing yards prop is set at 238.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 238.5 (-110) after it opened @ 240.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Denver Broncos to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the NFL versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season (73.2%).
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers profile as the 7th-worst unit in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a measly 58.4 plays per game.
- Russell Wilson’s passing accuracy has worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.2% to 58.5%.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 7th-least yards in the league (just 216.0 per game) against the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season.
- The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has shown good efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 7.16 yards-per-target: the 5th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
264
Passing Yards
264
Passing Yards
