Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Justin FieldsPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Giants vs. Bears
Right now, Justin Fields’s passing yards prop is set at 145.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 145.5 (-125) after it opened @ 147.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 7th-highest clip in the NFL versus the New York Giants defense since the start of last season (72.0%).
- The Chicago Bears offensive line has afforded their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
- The New York Giants defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.61 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the worst in the league since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 46.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
- The weatherman calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 26.8 passes in this week’s game, on average: the least of all QBs.
Projection
THE BLITZ
165
Passing Yards
165
Passing Yards
