Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jared GoffPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 4
Lions vs. Seahawks
Right now, Jared Goff’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 251.5 (-130) after it opened @ 258.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Detroit Lions offense has played at the 10th-fastest pace in the NFL (context-neutralized) this year, averaging 26.77 seconds per play.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
- Jared Goff has attempted 37.5 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 95th percentile among QBs.
- Opposing QBs have thrown for the 3rd-most yards in the NFL (264.0 per game) against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the highest level in football versus the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season (74.2%).
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 6th-least pass-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 58.4% pass rate.
- Jared Goff’s throwing precision has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 66.2% to 57.2%.
- The Detroit Lions O-line has afforded their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
- The Detroit Lions have utilized play action on a mere 22.0% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
266
Passing Yards
266
Passing Yards
