Week 4 Player Props: Passing Yards for Derek Carr from EV Insight

Derek CarrPassing Yards

Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 259.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 259.5 (-110) after it opened @ 272.5 (-130).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Derek Carr has attempted 37.0 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 87th percentile among quarterbacks.
Derek Carr has been among the top QBs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 262.0 yards per game while ranking in the 92nd percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has struggled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 5.99 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 6th-most in the NFL.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 62.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
Derek Carr’s passing accuracy has diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 61.2%.
Opposing teams have passed for the 6th-least yards in the NFL (just 212.0 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-lowest rate in the league against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season (65.2%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
294
Passing Yards