Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for D'Andre Swift from EV Insight

D’Andre SwiftRushing Yards

Right now, D’Andre Swift’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 50.5 (-125) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.55 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects D’Andre Swift to garner 11.1 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 75th percentile among running backs.
D’Andre Swift has garnered 43.5% of his offense’s carries this year, placing him in the 78th percentile among RBs.
D’Andre Swift has averaged 50.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest figures in football among running backs (81st percentile).
D’Andre Swift’s running efficiency has gotten better this year, accumulating 8.95 yards-per-carry compared to a mere 3.74 figure last year.

Cons

The Lions are a 6.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 7th-least run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 38.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards