NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
CeeDee LambReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Giants vs. Cowboys
Right now, CeeDee Lamb’s receiving yards prop is set at 65.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet the OVER up to 65.5 (-110) after it opened @ 53.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dallas Cowboys will be forced to start backup quarterback Cooper Rush this week, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have called the 2nd-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 66.4 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.7 pass attempts per game against the New York Giants defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects CeeDee Lamb to earn 9.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 57.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 2nd-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions in this week’s contest.
- CeeDee Lamb’s receiving reliability have diminished this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.2% to 40.4%.
- CeeDee Lamb’s receiving effectiveness has declined this year, notching just 4.54 yards-per-target compared to a 9.37 rate last year.
- The New York Giants pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. WRs since the start of last season, conceding 7.74 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
68
Receiving Yards
68
Receiving Yards
