Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Courtland Sutton from EV Insight

Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards

Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).

Pros

The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.1% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to total 7.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has put up a colossal 98.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Courtland Sutton has been among the best pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 50.0 yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.15 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in football.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards