NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Courtland SuttonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Broncos vs. 49ers
Right now, Courtland Sutton’s receiving yards prop is set at 56.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 56.5 (-110) after it opened @ 58.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Courtland Sutton has run a route on 91.1% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, placing him in the 90th percentile among wideouts.
- THE BLITZ projects Courtland Sutton to total 7.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
- Courtland Sutton has put up a colossal 98.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among wide receivers.
- Courtland Sutton has been among the best pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 50.0 yards per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.15 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-least in football.
- The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 4th-best collection of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
69
Receiving Yards
69
Receiving Yards
