Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chase EdmondsRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Chase Edmonds’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-103/-133).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-133) after it opened @ 37.5 (-125).
Pros
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
- Chase Edmonds has received 44.7% of his team’s carries this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among RBs.
- Chase Edmonds has picked up 45.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (76th percentile).
- Chase Edmonds’s ground effectiveness (5.03 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football since the start of last season (89th percentile among RBs).
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 4th-least run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 37.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
- Chase Edmonds has been among the bottom running backs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a mere 2.63 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while checking in at the 16th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
39
Rushing Yards
39
Rushing Yards
