Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Christian McCaffreyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-101/-135).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 61.5 (-101) after it opened @ 59.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 8th-most run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Christian McCaffrey to accumulate 16.2 carries in this contest, on average, placing him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
- Christian McCaffrey has been given 71.4% of his offense’s rush attempts this year, ranking in the 95th percentile among running backs.
- Christian McCaffrey has picked up 65.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (96th percentile).
Cons
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- The Carolina Panthers offensive line ranks as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season at opening holes for rushers.
- The New Orleans Saints defense owns the best efficiency against opposing rushing attacks since the start of last season, surrendering just 3.87 yards-per-carry.
- The New Orleans Saints linebackers rank as the 2nd-best group of LBs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.
- The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Rushing Yards
70
Rushing Yards
