Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Austin Ekeler from EV Insight

Austin EkelerRushing Yards

Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-120).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 50.5 (-120) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).

Pros

The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to total 13.1 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Austin Ekeler has earned 54.9% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
Austin Ekeler has picked up 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (90th percentile).

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 34.5% run rate.
Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-worst pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.
Austin Ekeler’s rushing effectiveness has tailed off this season, accumulating just 2.78 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.74 rate last season.
Austin Ekeler has been among the weakest running backs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 2.36 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 19th percentile.
The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards