Best MLB Bets Today – Free (Friday 5/3)
Adam Strangis
Austin EkelerRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Chargers vs. Jaguars
Right now, Austin Ekeler’s rushing yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-120).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 50.5 (-120) after it opened @ 50.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Chargers are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Austin Ekeler to total 13.1 carries this week, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
- Austin Ekeler has earned 54.9% of his team’s rush attempts this year, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
- The Los Angeles Chargers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in the league since the start of last season at blocking for the run game.
- Austin Ekeler has picked up 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among RBs (90th percentile).
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 3rd-least run-oriented offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 34.5% run rate.
- Opposing offenses have played at the 9th-worst pace in football (adjusted for context) against the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season, averaging 28.59 seconds per snap.
- Austin Ekeler’s rushing effectiveness has tailed off this season, accumulating just 2.78 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.74 rate last season.
- Austin Ekeler has been among the weakest running backs in the NFL at generating extra ground yardage, averaging a mere 2.36 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 19th percentile.
- The Los Angeles Chargers have been faced with a stacked the box on 18.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in football. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
57
Rushing Yards
57
Rushing Yards
