MLB Best Bets – Free (Wednesday 5/15)
Josh Gross
Welcome to the FTN’s free MLB Picks of the Day, featuring our favorite or best MLB bets today. FTN will be posting a play or two from the MLB card — for free!
Today, Eric Pauly provides his picks.
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Best MLB Bets and Picks Today
St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Dodgers
STL +1.5 -144 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
The Dodgers have locked up the NL West, and Friday they face a Cardinals team looking to lock up the NL Central. St. Louis has a 7.5-game lead over Milwaukee and are closing in on the division title. The numbers are in the Cardinals’ favor, but in order to lock in that spot, they need to keep on winning.
St. Louis is just 2-3 in their last five games, and they have a tough series against the Dodgers, but I am confident they will lock in the NL Central. The Dodgers currently have a 2-1 series lead over the Cardinals this year, and these next three games may be a preview for the divisional series in the playoffs.
St. Louis has not been an underdog much this season, but when they are, they cover at a great rate. As a dog this year, the Cardinals are 35-24 against the run line. On the other hand, the Dodgers are great at covering the run line as a favorite. They are 88-57 doing just that this season.
While the Dodgers cover at a higher rate than the Cardinals, there is a sense of urgency for St. Louis right now. Los Angeles will finish with the best record in the NL. The Cardinals need to lock in their divisional crown.
Lefty José Quintana will make the start for the Cardinals on the road. On the season, Quintana is 5-6 with a 3.16 ERA, a 1.25 WHIP, and a 3.09 FIP. In his last start, Quintana allowed no runs on two hits in eight innings of work. He faced the Dodgers in LA back in June with the Pirates and he allowed two runs on seven hits in 4.1 innings.
Quintana has not called one ballpark home all year this year, so I would expect his splits to be a little better on the road. However, on the road this season, Quintana has a 4.60 ERA, a .286 batting average against, a .402 slugging percentage against, a 3.45 FIP and a 1.50 WHIP.
Lefty Andrew Heaney will take the mound for the Dodgers at home. On the season, Heaney is 3-2 with a 2.66 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a 3.83 FIP. Heaney has made 13 starts this season, but he does not pitch late into games by any means. At home this season, Heaney has a 2.61 ERA, a .395 slugging percentage against, a 4.11 FIP and a 1.00 WHIP.
Given the pricing on this game, and the circumstances surrounding this matchup, the Cardinals on the run line screams value. This team needs to win, they are stout, and the Dodgers bullpen is tired from their last series. I have this priced at STL +1.5 -160, so there is a ton of value at -144.
Bet: Cardinals RL +1.5 -144 (FanDuel Sportsbook)
